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Blestemul lui 50% a b?gat ?i Ungaria in criz? economic?

Blestemul lui 50% a b?gat ?i Ungaria in criz? economic?

Pentru a descrie ce poate p??i Romania dac? salariile tuturor bugetarilor vor cre?te cu 50%, iar deficitul bugetar va cre?te la 7%, anali?tii dau exemplul Ungariei din 2000.

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De ce? In 2000, dup? 10 ani de strans

cureaua, de cre?teri record ale economiei pe baza cre?terii productivit??ii ?i

a atragerii investi?iilor str?ine, de pus banii la banc? ?i de consum moderat

pentru a nu starni infla?ia, politicienii s-au gandit c? ar fi timpul s?

transforme tot ceea ce se ca?tigase in pomeni electorale. Al treilea an in care

Ungaria a fost condus? de guvernul Viktor Orban a echivalat cu inceputul

dezastrului pentru maghiari.

 

Criza maghiar? a pornit de la cre?terea

salariilor cu 50%

 

Motivul? D?rnicia electoral?. Prima piatr?

de moar? legat? de gatul bugetului Ungariei a fost pornirea unui program

na?ional de construc?ie de locuin?e subven?ionate de stat. In timp ce capitalul

electoral cre?tea, banii r?ma?i la buget pentru continuarea investi?iilor in

infrastructur?, de exemplu, sc?deau v?zand cu ochii. ?i dac? asta nu ar fi fost

de ajuns, programul, care a atras zeci de mii de cereri, a inghi?it aproape

instantaneu economiile popula?iei, cele care garanteaz? trecerea mai u?oar?

prin momentele grele ale economiei locale.

 

Cirea?a de pe tortul pomenilor electorale a

fost ins? decizia guvernului Orban de a m?ri cu 50% salariile tutoror

bugetarilor. Urmarea? Ungaria a ratat ?inta ini?ial? de trecere la euro, care

era 2008, exper?ii spunand c? ?i intervalul de 2010-2014 este destul de

optimist. Astfel, infla?ia in Ungaria este 7,7%, fa?? de un maximum de 3% iar

deficitul bugetar este de 4,9% fa?? de limita de 3% impus? de UE pentru a trece

la euro. Economi?tii sus?in c? aceste derapaje se datoreaz? acelei perioade

nefaste 2000-2002, cand generozitatea guvernului a dezechilibrat economia

maghiar?.

 

Ce putem face pentru a evita un viitor

asem?n?tor cu al Ungariei

 

Anali?tii economici locali au perspective

sumbre. Una dintre variantele salvatoare este ca Parlamentul s? revin? asupra

deciziei de a m?ri salariile profesorilor cu 50% sau ca pre?edintele Romaniei

s? nu promulge aceast? lege. Dand la o parte aceste variante ins?, viitorul nu

este deloc incurajator. “Dac? nu revine (Parlamentul, n.r.) asupra deciziei

Guvernul va trebui s? fac? un nou buget in care s? introduc? ?i aceste

cheltuieli suplimentare. In lipsa resurselor necesare va trebui s? taie de unde

poate, tot ce poate, pentru a nu dep??i un deficit bugetar de 3%. Asta ar

inseamna practic anularea tuturor investi?iilor”, ne-a declarat Dan Pascariu,

pre?edintele consiliului de supraveghere al UniCredit ?iriac Bank.

 

Dac? Guvernul va face acest lucru nu vom

spune adio numai kilometrilor de autostrad? care a?teapt? s? treac? de pe

hartie pe p?mant, ci oric?rei investi?ii, de orice natur?, fapt subliniat ?i de

Vosganian, care a dat ca exemple investi?iile din inv???mant ?i din s?n?tate.

 

Ins? aceast? variant? ar putea fi totu?i

una optimist?. “Ideea de a nu cre?te deficitul ?i de a t?ia din investi?ii mi

se pare improbabil?. La Ap?rare, de exemplu, ai angajamentele fa?? de NATO,

sunt unele investi?ii b?tute in cuie, trebuie f?cute, nu ai ce face. Dac?

Parlamentul nu revine asupra deciziei, intr?m intr-o situa?ie foarte grav?”, a

declarat pentru Gandul Aurelian Dochia, consultant financiar.

 

La fel ca in cazul Ungariei, unde o simpl?

mi?care gre?it? a anulat ani de succese ?i de recorduri, Romania ar putea c?dea

victim? populismului.

 

“La sfar?itul anilor ’90, cand leul era

foarte slab ?i infla?ia era foarte mare era vorba ?i de conjunctur?. Romania

era prost v?zut?, nu avea de unde s? se imprumute... Acum ins?, dat fiind contextul

economic actual, o asemenea criz? ar fi gratuit?. Ar fi o criz? determinat? de

un gest gratuit. Ar insemna c? factorii de decizie in acest caz au f?cut tot

posibilul s? strice situa?ia destul de bun? pe care am avut-o pan? acum”, a

ad?ugat el.

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Sursa: Business24
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